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Alan Farley
HardRightEdge

  FibCalc Market Example Archives

The opinions expressed in this column are based on how I interpret Events, the Market, and the Charts -- unless otherwise noted --  and are not recommendations to buy or sell securities. Trading stocks involves risk. Never put your money on the line without a thorough understanding of what you are doing, and why you are doing it, based on your own personal experience. No Chart Pattern works out the way we think it should every time,  so it is vitally important to have a protective Stop-Loss and/or Exit point planned before entering into a trade. Do your own research and testing before attempting any of the techniques discussed in my columns, materials, courses, or emails. I cannot be held liable for any trading decisions based on any information obtained from me. - Rick LaPoint

UpTrend Retracing Down

DownTrend Retracing Up

Lesson: 50% Phenomenon Theory

50% Phenomenon Down

Pivot Dates by Ratio

Here is how FibCalc mapped
AMAT - Applied Materials (Semiconductor)
for the week of April 29 - May 3, 2002.

See Prices and Pivot Ratios Below

Most traders wouldn't Map an entire week  based on one day, preferring instead to do their Fibonacci calculations a little closer to the vest. But this example shows how accurate Fibonacci Probability Points can be, even when extended out like this.

Here are the FibCalc numbers, the Actual numbers, and the Delta (the difference between the two). Note that 3 numbers in the left column are Bounce numbers (B) and not a Target numbers (T). We watch for both, as both are legitimate Reversal Targets.

I used the Opening High of the previous Week's Wednesday Morning and the Low of the following Thursday Morning, then used the first Bounce, which was the High of that same morning, to calculate the movements for the entire remainder of that week and the entire week to follow. The Range for the Period from High to Low was 4.82 -- almost 5.00, and as you can see from the Delta column, the most FibCalc was off from Actual Price was .21 cents.  Note that I didn't pick a stock in advance that I knew would look good, but simply picked a stock from the news, and let the numbers fall where they may.  

Here is how FibCalc called MOT for the week of Mar 18 - Mar 22, 2002.

Most traders wouldn't Map an entire week based on one day, preferring instead to do their Fibonacci calculations a little closer to the vest. But this example shows how accurate Fibonacci Probability Points can be, even when extended out like this.

Here are the FibCalc numbers, the Actual numbers, and the Delta (the difference between the two). Note that 1 number in the left column is a Bounce number (B) and not a Target number (T). I used the High of Monday morning and the Low in the afternoon, then used the first Bounce of that same day to calculate the movements for the entire remainder of the week. The Range for the Week from High to Low was 1.07, and as you can see from the Delta column, the most FibCalc was off from Actual Price was .03 cents.  Note that I didn't pick a stock in advance that I knew would look good, but simply picked a stock at random, and let the numbers fall where they may. In this case, MOT had a difficult week. But even a stock with volatility that didn't seem to make sense, reversed up and down very nicely at Fibonacci points.

Here is how FibCalc called PG for the week of Feb 25 - Mar 01 2002.

Most traders wouldn't Map an entire week based on one day, preferring instead to do their Fibonacci calculations a little closer to the vest. But this example shows how accurate Fibonacci Probability Points can be, even when extended out like this.

Here are the FibCalc numbers, the Actual numbers, and the Delta (the difference between the two). Note that 1 number in the left column is a Bounce number (B) and not Target numbers (T). I used the High of The previous Friday morning and the Low in the afternoon, then used the first Bounce of that same day to calculate the movements for the entire following week. The Range for the Week from High to Low was 4.75, and as you can see from the Delta column, the most FibCalc was off from Actual Price was .12 cents.  Note that I didn't pick a stock in advance that I knew would look good, but simply picked a stock at random, and let the numbers fall where they may. In this case, it's hard to find anything more boring than PG!

Here is how FibCalc called IBM for the week of Feb 19-22  2002.

Most traders wouldn't Map an entire week based on one day, preferring instead to do their Fibonacci calculations a little closer to the vest. But this example shows how accurate Fibonacci Probability Points can be, even when extended out like this.

Here are the FibCalc numbers, the Actual numbers, and the Delta, i.e. the difference between the two. Note that 2 numbers in the left column are Bounce numbers (B) and not Target numbers (T). I used the High of Tuesday morning (Monday was a Holiday) and the Low in the afternoon, then used the first Bounce of Monday to calculate the movements for the entire remainder of the week. The Range for the Week from High to Low was 2.88, and as you can see from the Delta column, the most FibCalc was off from Actual Price was .30 cents.  Note that I didn't pick a stock in advance that I knew would look good, but simply picked a stock in the News, and let the numbers fall where they may.

Here is how FibCalc called the QQQ for the week of Feb 11-15 2002.

Here are the FibCalc numbers, the Actual numbers, and the Delta, i.e. the difference between the two. Note that numbers 2 and 13 in the left column are other Bounce numbers (B) and not Target numbers (T). I used the Low of last week's Close and the High of this weeks Open, then used the first Bounce of Monday to calculate the movements for the entire remainder of the week. As you can see from the Delta column, the most FibCalc was off from Actual Price was .13 cents.